Patient & revenue forecasting in SyMAP
From patients
to global revenue.
Build pharmaceutical demand from patient populations, uptake and treatment assumptions. Connect it to evolving prices and policy in one monthly global forecast.
Illustrative pricing connections using configured reference baskets and reviewed Middle Eastern, African and Asia-Pacific benchmarks. International markets feed the US MFN and GENEROUS benchmarks. IRP events connect the Netherlands, Greece, Portugal, France, Japan, Canada, Brazil, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the Philippines and Taiwan; dotted links show Italy’s informal referencing and South Africa’s international benchmarking. Morocco shows its six fixed reference countries; an additional country-of-origin reference depends on the product. The Philippines illustrates reference baskets used for selected medicines under price caps; Taiwan illustrates its ten-market reimbursement reference basket. Assessments continue when their destination is beyond view, with visible reference-market flows travelling towards the horizon. Markets beyond the horizon remain in each basket. Animation timing is illustrative, not a calendar of national assessments. No real product prices are displayed.
- SyMAP Event Feed:
From the patient to the commercial outcome
What is driving demand?
What does it mean for revenue?
Connect epidemiology and treatment assumptions to monthly product demand. Bring that demand into the same forecast as international prices and US policy effects.
Build the demand forecast
- 01Population & epidemiology
Incidence or prevalence
- 02Diagnosis & eligibility
Define the treated population
- 03Uptake & persistence
Product and competitor assumptions
- 04Monthly product demand
Packs or treatment-years
One connected outlook
Patients.
Prices.
Global revenue.
See how demand and changing net prices shape the result over time.
Inside SyMAP
Model the patients.
See the commercial impact.
Follow the patient journey, connect demand to your product and explore the revenue outlook.
Inspect the workspace See how the patient population becomes product demand.
Follow the model from population and eligibility through treatment uptake, patients on therapy and consumption, using market-specific assumptions. The France view includes calculated peak patient starts and patients on therapy from the illustrative DMD model.
Inspect the workspace See how patient demand develops across markets.
Follow patients on therapy across six markets in the DMD demo. The monthly curves bring launch timing, uptake and treatment persistence into view; the July 2034 tooltip lets you inspect each market at the same point in time.
Inspect the workspace Connect the patient model to the product forecast.
Attach an indication-specific patient model and select the product that receives its demand. This Symara demo links the patient model to its pricing dataset; additional models can represent distinct patient populations within the same forecast.
Inspect the workspace Turn patient demand into the commercial outlook.
This Symara demo combines patient demand with annual-treatment prices, international reference pricing and the selected US MFN scenario. Review net revenue by region over time, then inspect the contributions to the 2035 total.
Actual SyMAP workspaces. Illustrative product data. Select an image to inspect the detail.
Multi-indication forecasting
Different indications.
One product timeline.
An indication expansion changes the product outlook. Model each distinct patient population with its own patient flow, launch date and uptake assumptions, then combine demand for the product.
Keep each indication distinct
Model the population and treatment dynamics that make each opportunity different.
See the combined contribution
Bring monthly patient demand together to explore the effect of indication timing and uptake on the forecast.
Separate assumptions. Connected demand.
Patient flow · Launch · Uptake
Patient flow · Launch · Uptake
Attached to the product forecast
Make the forecast explainable
Follow the change.
Understand the consequence.
Review patient demand, price evolution and revenue together. Move from the global result to the markets and assumptions behind it.
What if uptake is slower?
Compare uptake assumptions to see how patients on therapy, monthly demand and net revenue develop against your base case.
What if an indication launches later?
Shift an indication’s launch timing and compare its demand contribution and the effect on total product net revenue.
What if prices or US MFN change?
Keep demand assumptions consistent while comparing international price paths and selected US MFN scenarios. See which markets drive the net revenue difference.
Questions, answered
A clearer starting point.
Can we use our existing volume forecast?
Yes. Keep your dataset volume forecasts, or attach patient models to selected products. Products without an attached model retain their dataset volumes, so you can add patient modelling where it is most useful.
Do we need detailed patient data for every market?
No. Model priority markets in detail and extend the outlook to other markets using reference-market scaling, launch timing and access assumptions. Refine the country models as better evidence becomes available.
How do patients become product volumes?
For pack-priced products, dosing and pack details convert patient demand into packs. For annual-treatment products with chronic persistence, patients on therapy become treatment-years. The integrated forecast applies the product’s prices to those volumes.
Can different indications have different launch dates?
Yes. Each distinct patient population can have its own model, launch timing and uptake profile. Their monthly demand is then combined for the product.
Does patient forecasting connect to MFN?
An attached patient model can supply demand inputs to eligible MFN calculations as well as revenue. The relevant calculation depends on the policy scenario and settings you select. Explore US MFN modelling in SyMAP.
Your next decision
Bring your forecast.
Explore its drivers.
Explore your patient assumptions, product demand and pricing scenarios in a demo tailored to your forecasting questions.